07.03.2016 - The price of oil after the strong growth may resume falling

The price of gold continued to rise after on Friday was published report on the labor market in the US in February. Thus, the main factor that has supported the growth of metal became news on reduction of average hourly wage in the United States by 0.1% versus an expected increase of 0.2%. This fact reduces the chance of the Fed raising interest rates this year. On the other hand the number of jobs outside the agricultural sector increased by 242 thousand against the forecast of 195 thousand and the unemployment rate remained at 4.9%. Despite the recent rise in gold, we expect a change of trend in the near future and maintain the medium-term negative outlook for gold.

The price of futures for Light Sweet crude oil continued to rise after was able to overcome the important level of 36 dollars per barrel. Support for oil was the news on the growth of the number of jobs outside the agricultural sector, which grew by 242 thousand against the expected 195 thousand. In the near future the price dynamics will be affected by the speculation regarding the negotiations of the largest oil-producing countries on cooperation to maintain the price of oil. We exclude Iran's accession to the agreement on the freezing current levels of oil production and look forward to the resumption of the negative dynamics of oil prices. Our medium-term outlook also remains negative.

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