07.04.2016 - The US dollar weakened after the publication of the Fed meeting minutes
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro showed a slight increase after yesterday's publication of minutes of the previous Fed meeting, where it was decided not to raise interest rates. According to the rhetoric of the Fed, the US regulator parameters of monetary policy will remain unchanged at a meeting in late April amid fears of a global economic slowdown. Today, investors' attention will be focused on the publication of minutes of meetings of the ECB (11:30 GMT), in which investors expect to see an explanation of the recent ECB steps. In the near future, prices may continue to rise to 1.1500, but in spite of this, we maintain a medium-term negative outlook for the euro.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound rose against the weakening US dollar. Today, little impact on the course of trading will have news on the index of house prices (07:30 GMT). Investors will not rush to open new positions ahead of tomorrow's publication of important statistics on industrial production in the country. Concerns about a possible exit of Great Britain from the EU structure will continue to put pressure on the country's national currency quotes. Today we can see the continuation of the correction, but in the coming months is likely a significant drop of the pound.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen continued to strengthen against the backdrop of the lack of signals from the government regarding the intention to stop the strengthening of the yen. The Japanese currency is traditionally considered defensive asset, but risks at the moment is much less than at the beginning of the year and the main reason for the strengthening of the yen is speculation on the Bank of Japan’s passivity and closing long positions. Tomorrow will be published data on balance of payments and the consumer confidence index in Japan. The potential for further strengthening of the yen has declined and we expect the resumption of the fall of its price in the medium term.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar strengthened due to the decrease of the US dollar after the publication of the previous Fed meeting minutes. In addition, the increase in oil prices has supported other commodities. Risks associated with economic growth in China decreased, but low commodity prices and a negative trade balance of the country will continue to put pressure on the Australian dollar. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we are waiting for the resumption of the negative dynamics in the near future.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. Price of the New Zealand dollar rose amid the strengthening of the Australian dollar and the decline in the US dollar price. Indicators of trade in the country continue to improve over the past periods. At the same time, inflation in the country remains at a low level, which may make the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut interest rates. Our medium-term outlook remains negative despite the likely continued growth today.