07.05.2015 - ​Parliamentary elections in the UK will affect the price of the British pound

Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro continued to rise against the background of positive statistics for the Eurozone service PMI, which rose to 54.1 in April that is 0.4 better than analysts' forecasts. News about reducing retail sales by 0.8% in the euro area in March, against an expected fall of 0.4% could not change the mood of traders. Statistics on the growth in the number of jobs in the US private sector, which totaled 169 thousand that is 30 thousand less than analysts' expectations worsened sentiment towards the US dollar. Today, investors will not rush to build up positions ahead of the publication of data on US labor market on Friday. Today, little impact on the course of trading will be news in the number of initial unemployment claims in the US (12:30 GMT) and industrial orders in Germany (06:00 GMT). Our medium-term outlook for the euro remains negative.

Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound continued upward movement amid the weakening US dollar. Investors were supported by growth in the UK service PMI to 59.5 in April, which is 0.9 better than analysts' expectations. Today in the UK will take place parliamentary elections and speculations about their results will lead to increased volatility on the market. At the same time, traders will wait for tomorrow's publication of important statistics on the US labor market, which could strengthen the dollar. Our medium-term outlook for the British pound is a negative, but growth may continue in the near future.

Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The Japanese yen continued to strengthen in response to falling US dollar and due to increased demand for protective assets due to the uncertainty surrounding Greece's future payment of the IMF loan. Today, Japanese investors returned to the market after a long weekend, which also increased trading volumes. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook on the Japanese yen due to the weak macroeconomic statistics and ultra-soft monetary policy of the Bank of Japan.

Currency trading and the Australian dollar. Strong price volatility of the Australian dollar today was caused by the publication of data on the labor market in Australia. Thus, the unemployment rate rose by 0.1% to 6.1% in April, which coincided with forecasts of analysts. At the same time, the employment rate fell by 2.9% thousand against the expected growth by 4.5 thousand. Earlier, the Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates by 0.25%. Support for the Australian currency is the recent rise in prices for iron ore, the main export commodity of the country. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we expect a strong increase in volatility tomorrow.

Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar continues to consolidate near the level of 0.7500 after declining in the previous trading session. We recall that labor market statistics showed that the unemployment rate was 5.8%, against an expected decline to 5.5%. At the same time, investors continue to monitor the dynamics of the Australian dollar and the price of dairy products. We expect a continuation of price consolidation around current levels in the near future.

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