07.08.2015 - ​Statistics on the labor market in the US may support the dollar

Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro yesterday showed volatility due to the expectation of today's publication of an important report on the labor market (12:30 GMT). Positive data from America will increase the likelihood of higher interest rates of the Fed and will lead to the fall of the euro. Yesterday, the support for euro was the statistics on the growth of industrial orders in Germany by 2.0% against the forecast of 0.4%. Today, little impact on the course of trading will have data on the trade balance and industrial production in Germany (06:00 GMT). We expect strong price movement today and keep the medium-term negative outlook.

Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound fell against the dollar after the publication of minutes of meetings of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England, where one of the nine members of the committee voted for a rate hike. Analysts predicted that two members will support the growth of interest rates. At the same time, the Bank of England announced its intention to begin the process of monetary tightening in the country in the first half of 2016. It is predicted in the end of next year, interest rates will rise to 1.0% and in 2017 to 1.5%. Today, the course of trading will be affected by the data on the trade balance of the country (8:30 GMT). Our medium-term outlook is negative and we expect falling prices in the near future, but in the autumn our forecast can change.

Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen slightly strengthened against the background of statements by the Bank of Japan on monetary policy. Thus, it was decided to leave the monetary policy parameters unchanged. The volume of the program of asset purchases remained at 80 trillion yen per year. Positive for the Japanese currency was a statement about the growth of the housing market. Today is expected the increase in volatility after the release of statistics on the US labor market. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.

Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar showed a slight increase against the publication of the RBA forecasts for GDP growth and inflation in the country. Thus, economic growth will slow to 2.5-3.5% in 2015, against the previous forecast of 2,75-3,75%. Core inflation is estimated by the central bank to be 2-3% in the long term. In case of rising commodity prices, we can see the price correction of the Australian currency. Today, will be released the data on the US labor market, which is likely to lead to a strong price movement. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.

Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar continues to rise gradually within the correction. Investors did not rush to build up positions ahead of the release of unemployment data in the United States. Quotations of the New Zealand dollar remained under the pressure of low prices for dairy products and expected to decline in interest rates in the country to sustain economic activity. We have a negative growth forecast on the price of the New Zealand dollar in the medium term and recommend holding short positions.

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