07.09.2015 - Activity of investors today will be reduced
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro rose slightly at the start of the trading week on the background of technical factors. On Friday, there was an increase in volatility after the release of a report on the US labor market, but the price continued to consolidate near the previous levels. Thus, the number of non-farm payrolls rose by only 170 thousand, against an expected increase of 215 million, but the unemployment rate fell to its lowest level since April 2008 - 5.1%. Today, the in the US is holiday, and the course of trading will be affected by the news on industrial production in Germany (06:00 GMT) and the index of investor confidence in the euro area from the Sentix (08:30 GMT). Investor activity will decline this week. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we are waiting for the Fed's statement on monetary policy, which will be published on September 17.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound continues to decline amid the gradual deterioration of the terms of analysts' forecasts of rising interest rates the Bank of England to the 3rd quarter of 2016. At the same time, the deteriorating macroeconomic statistics also puts pressure on the UK currency quotes. On Wednesday will be released an important data on the trade balance and industrial production in the country. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we expect a decline of quotations in the near future.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen fell earlier in the week after the publication of statistics on the index of leading economic indicators in Japan in July to 104.9% versus 106.5% in June. It is worth noting that the Japanese Prime Minister noted on the strength of the Japanese economy, which together with the calm opening of the Chinese markets after a long weekend, has led to a decline in demand for defensive assets. Today activity will be reduced due to the holiday in the US. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar rose slightly today after the publication of unexpectedly strong statistics on the construction PMI, which rose to 53.8 vs. expected 47.1 previously. At the same time, the number of vacancies in the country has increased by 1.0% in August. In spite of this, weak macroeconomic indicators like GDP growth and the trade balance continue to put pressure on the quotes of the national currency of Australia. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar continues to fall in the downward trend under the pressure of the strong negative fundamental factors as falling prices for dairy products in the world, the growth of the trade deficit and the expectation of further reduction in interest rates of the RBNZ to maintain demand in the country. Our medium-term outlook remains negative with the target near the psychologically important 0.60 level.