07.09.2016 - The dollar has fallen on the background of weak statistics
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro showed growth against the US dollar after has been published weak data on the service PMI in the US, which unexpectedly fell to 51.4 in August against the forecast of 55.4. This fact has reduced the likelihood of the Fed raising interest rates this year. Today, the dynamics of trading will affect the data on the volume of industrial production in Germany (06:00 GMT), the number of vacancies in the US (14:00 GMT), and the publication of Beige Book (18:00 GMT). Investors are waiting for tomorrow's press conference of Mario Draghi, and the Fed's statement on monetary policy after the meeting on September 20-21. Our medium-term outlook for the euro is negative.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound continued its upward dynamics against the weakening US dollar and strong statistics on the service sector activity. Today, volatility will be increased in connection with the release of an important report on manufacturing in the UK (08:30 GMT). According to our estimates, in the medium term quotes will decline, but we do not exclude the quotes to continue rising in the near future.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen demonstrates strengthening against the publication of weak statistics from the US, which weakened the dollar and increased demand for defensive assets. Support also was the data on the index of leading economic indicators in Japan, which rose to 100.0% in July against the forecast of 98.6%. Tomorrow volatility will be increased after the publication of the report on Japan's GDP and balance of payments of the country. Our medium-term outlook remains negative, due to the divergence in monetary policy parameters, but the growth in demand for defensive assets may rise, which will strengthen the positions of the yen in the near future.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar showed growth against the backdrop of the US dollar’s decline, but investor sentiment deteriorated after was published the statistics for GDP growth in Australia by only 0.5% in the second quarter, which is 0.1% worse than the forecast and 0.5% less than in the previous period. Tomorrow, on the dynamics of trading will affect the most important data on the trade balance in Australia and China. According to our estimates, the fall of the Australian dollar will resume in the near future and the medium-term outlook also remains negative.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar shows stable growth, which is caused by a decrease of the American currency. Negative for investors remains the decline in commodity prices and weak data from Australia, which is a key trading partner of the country. By the till the end of the year interest rates of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand may be reduced on the background of low inflation. According to our estimates, quotes will be corrected in the near future and our medium-term view remains negative.