07.10.2014 - ​After correction, the price of the dollar started growing again

The price of euro started the trading week with upward correction after a significant reduction on Friday after the release of positive data on the labor market in the United States. The price of euro rose despite weak data from the Eurozone. Thus, the volume of industrial orders in Germany fell in August by 5.7%, compared with an expected decline of 2.4%, investors’ confidence index fell to -13.7 in October, that is 1.9 worse than the forecast. Today, the course of trading may be affected by the data on the volume of industrial production in Germany (06:00 GMT), the volume of consumer lending in the United States (19:00 GMT). Particular attention should be paid to the speeches, of the presidents of Federal Reserve Banks of Minneapolis and New York. We look forward to the resumption of the downward movement after correction and maintain a medium-term negative outlook.

The British pound yesterday showed a substantial correction amid weakening of the dollar, but the downward movement was resumed. The important statistics was published yesterday, so movements on the market were caused by fixation positions on the market. Today is also the expected a significant volatility on the background of the release of data on industrial production and the report of the Bank of England on the credit market (08:30 GMT). We should also pay attention to the forecasts of GDP growth (14:00 GMT). Increase in volatility is expected on Thursday after the publication of statements of the Bank of England. Potential price decline reduced, but in the near future we will probably see a continuation of the downward movement.

The Japanese yen continues to move sideways. Currently quotations renewed decline, due to another strengthening of the American currency. Investors expect the publication of data on the index of leading economic indicators for August (05:00 GMT). Tomorrow is expected the increase of the activity of traders in connection with the statement of the Bank of Japan and the publication of the monthly economic report of the Bank of Japan. Investors still expect the Bank of Japan will decide to launch additional measures to stimulate economic growth, which has suffered from increased sales tax in April. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook for the yen.

The price of the Australian Dollar stopped the upward movement after the publication of the statement of the Reserve Bank Australia which decided to leave the interest rate unchanged at 2.50%, said that the price of the national currency is still at a high level despite the strong decline earlier. The rate of inflation in the country remains within the target levels, and the labor market of the country is unstable. Among the risks identified for the economy was the slowing growth in China. Increase in volatility is expected on Thursday after the release of data on unemployment in the country. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook for the Australian dollar.

The price of the New Zealand dollar tried to correct upwards, but the movement was short-lived and quotations began to decline against the strengthening dollar and the negative statistics on the index of business confidence in New Zealand, which fell to 19 in the third quarter compared to 32 in the previous period. The main reasons for the deterioration of mood have become low export prices and fears of a slowdown in China. We look forward to continuing downward dynamics of the New Zealand dollar and maintain a medium-term negative outlook.

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