07.10.2015 - The US dollar has weakened yesterday
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro yesterday showed growth against the background of weak statistics on the US trade balance and the speech of representative of the ECB Liikanen in which he denied the possibility of a further increase in the ECB's quantitative easing program, which supported the quotations of the euro. The trade deficit in the US rose to 48.3 billion, compared with an expected 47.6 billion against the backdrop of a minimum level of exports since June 2011. Today, the focus will be on the data on the volume of industrial production in Germany (06:00 GMT) and consumer crediting in the US (19:00 GMT). Our medium-term outlook for the euro remains negative and we are waiting for a strong movement after the current consolidation.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound against the US dollar had grown amid weak statistics on the trade balance in the United States, as well as the deterioration in global growth forecasts by the IMF to 3.1% this year against 3.3% in the July forecast. Falling housing prices in the UK by 0.9% in September failed to change investor sentiment. Today, the dynamics of prices will depend on the vital statistics on industrial production in the United Kingdom (08:30 GMT). We expect the price decline of the British pound in the medium term.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen has strengthened yesterday against the weakening US dollar. The Bank of Japan has left unchanged the parameters of monetary policy according to which the annual purchase of assets is 80 trillion yen. The index of leading economic indicators in the country in August totaled 103.5, which is 0.1% better than analysts' forecasts. Tomorrow will be released the important statistics on balance of payments and domestic orders for engineering products. Our medium-term outlook for the yen remains negative.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar continued to rise against the weakening US dollar and statistics for the construction sector in the country. Thus, the index of activity in the housing construction sector totaled 51.9 vs. anticipated 53.8 previously. Despite this, construction of houses has reached its highest level in 11 months. We recall that the RBA yesterday decided not to loosen monetary policy settings. Current growth may continue in the near future, but we expect the resumption of the negative dynamics in the near future.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar continued the strong growth in which has reached an important level of 0.66. The growth of quotations caused a drop in the US dollar, as well as reduced likelihood of further easing of monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after saving in interest rates by the Reserve Bank of Australia. After strong growth in the previous days, we expect to see a price correction in the near future. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.