07.11.2014 - Statistics on the US labor market will lead to increased volatility on the markets

US stock indexes yesterday showed moderate growth on the statements of the ECB on monetary policy and data on the US labor market, where the number of initial unemployment claims fell to 278 thousand that is 7 thousand better than analysts' forecasts. At the same time, traders showed low activity in connection with the expectations of today's labor market statistics in the US (13:30 GMT). In addition, at 15:15 GMT Janet Yellen will speak, and at 19:00 GMT will be released data on consumer crediting for September. We expect the positive dynamics of the indexes in the near future, but keep medium-term negative outlook.

European stock market yesterday showed a slight increase after the statement in which ECB Mario Draghi noted the positive expectations of the repurchase program of backed securities and TLTRO on the regional economy, but stressed the negative impact of geopolitical risks on the investment environment. High unemployment according to Mr. Draghi is the main problem for the Eurozone. Today trading dynamics will depend on the data on the US labor market. Today positive has become the data on trade balance of Germany, which grew by 18.5 billion, as well as data on industrial production, which increased by 1.2% in September, against a decline of 3.1% in August. We forecast the growth in the near future, but keep medium-term negative outlook on the stock markets in the region.

Markets in the Asia-Pacific region are reduced. Fall of the Japanese yen again supported investors in Japan. Stock indexes in the country will continue to grow even for a long time due to the change of the investment strategy of the state pension fund of Japan to increase the part Japanese equities in the portfolio to 25%. The Australian market is under the pressure of low prices for iron ore, but the country's financial sector shows growth. Chinese investors expect to publish data on the trade balance of the country. Given the slowdown in China, we maintain a medium-term negative outlook on the markets in the region but forecast the growth of indexes in Japan.

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