07.12.2015 - The dollar may strengthen in the early weeks after the sharp fall on Thursday
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro corrected down after a strong growth in the last week caused by triggered stop orders after less mild stimulus by the ECB. The reason for the correction was also the labor market data in the US, where the number of jobs outside the agricultural sector rose by 211 thousand and the unemployment rate remained at 5.0%. Therefore, the likelihood of tighter US monetary policy is extremely high, which supported the dollar and puts pressure on the euro. Today, we should pay attention to the statistics on the volume of industrial production in Germany (07:00 GMT), the index of investor confidence in the Eurozone (09:30 GMT) and the volume of consumer credit in the US (20:00 GMT). Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we recommend accumulating short positions.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound has stabilized after the strong growth at the end of last week, caused by rising euro and the fall of the US dollar. Today will be the speech of the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney (15:00 GMT), in which he will assess how easing of monetary policy in the euro area can influence the monetary policy in the UK. Investors will not hurry with actions before the publication of data on industrial output in the country on Tuesday. We forecast a drop in the medium term and in the near future.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen continues to gradually decline after the sharp rise against the US dollar on Thursday. Today was published the positive statistics on the index of leading economic indicators, which in October totaled 102.9% against 101.6% in September. Tomorrow may be a strong price movement after data on Japan's GDP in the third quarter, the balance of payments and statements of the Bank of Japan's chairman Haruhiko Kuroda. Our medium-term outlook for the yen remains negative.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar has stabilized after strong growth last week caused by the improvement of the situation on the commodity markets and the weakening of the US dollar. Tomorrow, on the dynamics of trading will affect news about the index of business sentiment in Australia. In addition, investors are waiting for statistics on the trade balance and the state of the industry in China. We expect that the recent strong growth, on the market will resume falling. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar is corrected downwards after strong growth in recent days. Investors decided to fix positions and wait for the decision of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy on Wednesday night. Given the weak inflation, the New Zealand regulator may decide to reduce interest rates to stimulate economic growth. Our medium-term outlook for the New Zealand currency remains negative.