07.02.2014 - Mario Draghi did not give new stimulus
U.S. and European markets closed yesterday's trading session with steady growth. Statistics on the U.S. labor market was one of the growth drivers. The number of unemployment claims in the U.S. decreased to 331 thousand vs. expected 337 thousand. Labor productivity increased by 3.2% against the expected figure 2.8%.
Euro grew after ECB President Mario Draghi did not announce new measures of monetary policy easing in the euro area. The interest rate remained at 0.25%. In addition, it was noted that economic growth in the euro area is recovering and inflation will remain low and will not reach the target of 2% for a long time.
Today the course of trading can be affected by statistics on the trade balance of Germany (07:00 GMT), France (7:45 GMT), the UK (09:30 GMT), and the industrial production in the UK (09:30 GMT). Central news of this week will be the publication of data on unemployment in the U.S. (13:30 GMT).
On Monday will be released the block of data from Asia. So, will be published data on the trade balance and the volume of new lending in China, the balance of payments and index of consumer confidence in Japan. In the euro zone will be released the report concerning investor confidence.
After the statement of the Bank of England on the immutability of monetary policy, the British Pound has not changed significantly and continues to consolidate around the level of 1.6320. Two attempts of bears to lower the price have failed. If the price fixates above 1.6350, we recommend opening long positions.
USD/JPY came from the local downstream channel and resumed growth. The reason for optimism was the strengthening of the U.S. dollar on the background of improvement in the labor market. We maintain a long-term positive outlook for the quotations of the pair.
Strengthening of the U.S. dollar stopped the upward movement of the Australian dollar. Reserve Bank of Australia raised the forecast of inflation to 3.25% in June against the previous forecast of 2.75%. At the same time have been improved the forecast for GDP growth rate - from 2-3% to 2,25-3,25%. After the growth in the previous days, we expect the correction to 0.89.
Oil showed a positive trend on the background of strong performance of the labor market in the U.S., as well as because of statement of the head of the ECB regarding plans for further stimulation of the economy of the euro zone. Today trade dynamics will depend on the data on the unemployment rate in the United States. We maintain a long-term negative outlook for oil due to the more rapid growth in the supply of oil on the market compared to the rise in demand.
The price of gold continues to consolidate near the level of $ 1,260 per troy ounce. Further progress will depend on the statistics on the labor market in the United States. Recently, we have seen an increase in demand for the metal from invest funds, but this trend is strongly dependent from the dynamics of stock markets.