07.03.2014 - The Euro was up on statements of the head of the ECB
Major stock indexes of America ended the trading session with different direction. Macro statistics in the U.S. have been mixed. Thus, the number of unemployment claims dropped to 323 thousand against analysts' forecast of 336 thousand. At the same time, the volume of factory orders in the U.S. in January decreased by 0.7%, although analysts expected a decline by 0.4%. The main event of the day was a press conference of Mario Draghi. According to the decision of the ECB the refinancing interest rate remained unchanged at 0.25% and the deposit rate at 0%. Furthermore, the ECB raised its forecast for growth in the 18 countries of the eurozone by 0.1% to 1.2%. The regulator intends to continue its policy of low interest rates, but does not reduce them despite low inflation.
On this background the price of euro has risen substantially and has overcome a strong level 1.3810. Considering lower growth of the Eurozone’s economy compared to the U.S., we maintain a long-term negative outlook for the euro. After yesterday's strong growth, the probability of correction is big enough. The course of trading today will be affected by statistics on unemployment and the trade balance in the U.S. (13:30 GMT).
On Monday, we should pay attention to the index of investor’s confidence in the euro area, as well as a block of data in Japan. The focus of investors is still on the situation in Crimea and news from the peninsula can significantly increase the volatility of the world markets.
The Bank of England kept interest rates at 0.5% and asset purchase program at 375 billion pounds. We recall that the central bank last time changed rates on March 5, 2009 and will try to keep it at a low level until will be assured of stable economic growth. On this background, the quotes of pound continued gradual growth. Movement of the pair today will depend on the data on the U.S. labor market. We keep medium and long term positive outlook for GBP/USD.
USD/JPY continued its upward movement and has overcome the strong resistance level. One reason for the growth was the statement by the Government of Japan regarding the fact that state pension fund does not need to focus on investment in domestic bonds because of acceleration of inflation in the country. In addition, demand for the yen fell on the background of reducing tension around Ukraine. We maintain our positive outlook for the USD/JPY and forecast further growth after a minor correction.
The Australian dollar has strengthened on the background of the statements of the Reserve Bank of Australia concerning the fact that inflation in the next two years will meet the target level, despite the fact that now it is at a higher level than before. After strong growth in the previous days, we expect the correction of the Australian dollar. We maintain a long-term negative outlook for the AUD/USD. The price movement in the near future will depend on the data on unemployment in the United States.
The New Zealand dollar rose following the Australian currency. The dynamics of prices today may be affected by data on the trade balance of the country's main trading partner - China. During the next week will be the central event the statement of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on the future monetary policy of the country. We maintain a long-term negative outlook for the NZD/USD.
Prices for Light Sweet crude oil stabilized and are consolidating around the level of 102.00. The reasons for the growth of quotations were the weakening of the dollar on statements of Mario Draghi as well as the positive statistics on unemployment in the United States. We expect growth of volatility after the release of data on the U.S. labor market. We maintain a long-term negative outlook for oil.
The gold once again has risen in price to $ 1,350 per troy ounce. The weakening of the dollar amid the reduction of factory orders in the U.S. and speculation about the situation in Crimea supported gold prices. In addition demand for the metal is growing steadily due to the uncertainty of investors in the future prospects of growth in the stock markets. We keep medium and long term positive outlook for gold.