07.04.2014 - The U.S. has a record number of employed
Major U.S. stock indexes finished the last trading session of the week with decline. The reason for the fall was the data on the labor market in the country. Thus, the unemployment rate remained at 6.7% vs. the forecast of analysts at 6.6%. At the same time the number of jobs outside the agricultural sector in March totaled 192 thousand, against the forecast of 199 thousand. Number of employed reached a new high since January 2008 and made 116.09 million people.
Despite mixed U.S. data, the quotes of euro continued a gradual decline and now are consolidating below 1.37. Support for the euro on Friday had the data on the retail PMI in Eurozone, that rose to 49.2, which is 0.7 better than the previous figure. Today the course of trading will be affected by data on industrial production in Germany (08:00 GMT), the index of investor confidence in the Eurozone (8:30 GMT) and consumer credit in the U.S. (19:00 GMT). We maintain a long-term negative outlook for the euro.
The British pound continued gradual reduction on the background of data on the labor market of the United States and decrease in the home price index of the UK by 1.1% against the forecast of 0.7% growth. Today, we expect low volatility due to the lack of important macro. Despite this, tomorrow will be released the data on the industrial production, on Wednesday on the trade balance, and on Thursday the Bank of England will make a statement on monetary policy. We expect growth recovery of the British pound in the medium and long term.
The price of USD/JPY has started to correct after a long consolidation below 104.00. After completion of the correction, we expect the resumption of growth. This week will be published a lot of important data and statements, including the balance of payments and the statement of the Bank of Japan on monetary policy on Tuesday, orders for machinery on Thursday and monetary base on Friday. We expect the recovery of growth and maintain medium-and long-term positive outlook for the pair.
The price of the Australian dollar again has reached the level 0.93, but was not able to overcome it. Tomorrow at 01:30 GMT, will be published data on the index of business confidence in Australia. Growth of prices for the Australian currency lately has been supported by the refusal of the RBA from further lowering rates and speculations on stimulation of the economy of China, which is the main trade partner of Australia. On Thursday, we should pay attention to the data on unemployment in the country. We need new signals to determine future price movement.
The price of the New Zealand dollar continues to win back the decline of the previous days. The reason for the growth was the data on the U.S. labor market, as well as expectations of new measures to stimulate the economy of China. We expect growth of the New Zealand dollar in the medium term. Today at 22:00 GMT will be published data on the business sentiment in New Zealand.
The price of Light Sweet crude oil keeps trading near $ 100 per barrel and the last trading session was growing on the background of a record number of people employed in the United States, which leads to an increase in oil consumption in the country. It is worth noting that the growth rate of oil production in the United States is also at record levels and we expect an increase in the imbalance between supply and demand. At the same time oil quotations are supported by news from Libya, where rebels continue to control the ports in the east of the country. We maintain a long-term negative outlook for oil.
The price of gold resumed growth and has overcome the level of $ 1,300 per troy ounce. The reason for the growth was the weakening of the U.S. dollar and fall on stock markets. In addition it is worth noting that the Central Bank of India, which is the world's second largest consumer of gold, has hinted at the removal of certain restrictions on imports. Demand for physical gold in Asia remains weak. We keep medium and long term positive outlook and recommend buying gold.