07.07.2014 - Industrial production in Germany significantly declined
Trading session on U.S. stock markets on Friday were not held in connection with celebrating of the Independence Day. We do not expect significant volatility on stock markets of America due to lack of important macro. The main event of the week will be the publication of the previous meeting protocols of Federal Open Market Committee of the U.S. Federal Reserve in which can be theses concerning the terms of interest rates rise. We believe that further growth is limited, and maintain a medium-term negative outlook on the U.S. market.
European stocks mostly declined on Friday after a strong growth during the week. Investors were disappointed with the decline in industrial production in Germany by 1.7%, which was 0.9% worse than expected. The index of business activity in the Eurozone retail sector showed an increase by 0.1 to 50.0, indicating extension in the sector. The UK market has continued to grow on Friday. Today the course of trading will be affected by data on industrial production in Germany, which fell by 1.8% in May, compared with an expected growth of 0.3% and the index of investor confidence in July (8:30 GMT). We expect continuation of the downward movement of European stock indexes.
Markets of the Asia-Pacific region are declining. The Australian market is down despite a marginal increase in iron ore prices. Japanese investors fix positions in connection with the approaching typhoon Nioguri to the shores of the country. In addition, the index of leading economic indicators fell in May to 105.7% against 106.5% in April. The Chinese market is under the pressure of weak real estate market. We expect a decline on the Australian and Chinese markets in the medium term. The Japanese market according to our estimates will show better results.