07.08.2014 - Geopolitical tensions have increased the demand for gold

The price of gold rose yesterday on the background of weak economic data on industrial production in Germany and the fall of Italy's GDP in the second quarter by 0.2%, compared with an expected growth of 0.1%. The main reason for the increased demand for gold was the statement by NATO concerning the increased number of Russian troops on the border with Ukraine, where is ongoing hostilities between the army and pro-Russian separatists. Today the dynamics of the price of gold will depend on the statements of the ECB on monetary policy in the euro area. The growth of quotations can be supported by a further fall on the stock market. We maintain our positive outlook for the medium-term with the closest targets at 1350 and 1365 dollars per troy ounce.

The price for the American benchmark Light Sweet crude oil continues to fall, despite the publication of data on the reduction of oil inventories by 1.8 million barrels, compared with an expected fall of 1.1 million. Meanwhile, gasoline inventories decreased by 4.4 million barrels and distillers by 1.8 million barrels. The quotes continue to decline amid rising oil supply and fears of a slowdown in demand for oil due to a decrease in the growth forecasts of the world's economy. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook for oil, but recommend to follow the geopolitical news that could lead to a spike in prices.

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