07.08.2014 - ​Markets expect the statements of the Bank of England and the ECB

US stock indexes remained practically unchanged yesterday, despite the positive trade balance of the country, deficit of which in June fell to 41.5 billion, against the forecast of 44.2 billion. Reason for the decline was a record volume of exports - 195.86 billion and a drop in petroleum imports to the lowest level since 2010. In addition to the dynamics of trade was negatively impacted by the news from Russia, where, according to the statement of the NATO is increasing the number of troops on the border with Ukraine and the introduction of retaliatory sanctions against the Western countries, Australia and Japan. Today we should pay attention to the data on the labor market (12:30 GMT) and consumer lending (19:00 GMT). We maintain a medium-term negative outlook on the American stock market.

European stocks fell yesterday because of increasing geopolitical risks in connection with an increase in the number of military forces near the Russian-Ukrainian border, as well as in connection with the data on industrial orders in Germany, which in June decreased by 3.2%, weak growth in industrial production in the UK - 0.3%, against the forecast of growth by 0.6%, and reduction of Italy's GDP by 0.2% in the second quarter, which is 0.3% worse than forecast. Today, the focus of investors will be at the statements of Bank of England (11:00 GMT) and ECB (12:30 GMT) on monetary policy. Also we should pay attention to statistics on industrial production in Germany (06:00 GMT). Our medium-term outlook remains negative.

Markets in the Asia-Pacific region except Japan, show a negative trend. The price correction after the sharp reduction of the yen helped the bulls to raise Japanese market after a decline in the beginning of the session. Markets in the region as well as in the United States and Europe, the negative perception of increased likelihood of the intervention of Russian troops on the territory of Ukraine, which was declared by NATO. Negative for Australian investors was a report of a sharp rise of the unemployment rate by 0.4% to 6.4%. Chinese traders expect the publication of data on the trade balance of the country tomorrow. The medium-term outlook remains negative.

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