07.08.2014 - Rising unemployment in Australia has led to a drop of AUD

The price of euro yesterday continued to decline due to the negative data on industrial orders in Germany, which fell by 3.2% in July, compared with an expected growth of 0.5%. The similar indicator in Italy rose by 0.9%, in line with analysts' forecasts. It should be noted that Italy's GDP fell by 0.2% in the second quarter, compared with an expected increase of 0.1%. Despite a series of negative statistics, the price of the euro corrected upwards after the fall and traders are waiting for the statement of Mario Draghi on monetary policy (12:30 GMT). Also the course of trading may be affected by the data on industrial production in Germany (06:00 GMT). We look forward to continuing downward movement in the near future and maintain a medium-term negative outlook.

The price of the British pound declined yesterday due to weak data on industrial production in the country. Thus, the indicator showed a modest increase in June by 0.3%, which did not meet analysts' forecasts that had expected growth by 0.6%. In May, indicator decreased by 0.6%. Today, the trade dynamics will depend on the statements of the Bank of England on monetary policy which parameters are likely to remain unchanged, but at the same time, in the bank may hint at the timing of raising interest rates. We maintain our positive outlook for the medium-term, but in the near future quotations may continue to fall.

The Japanese yen strengthened sharply yesterday, despite the decline in the trade deficit of the United States to 41.5 billion in June, which is 0.7% better than expected. Also yesterday, was published a report, according to which the index of leading economic indicators in Japan rose to 105.5% in June, against 104.8% in May. Tomorrow is expected the increase of volatility in connection with the release of statistics on balance of payments, bank lending and the index of the current assessment of the economy. We maintain a negative medium-term outlook for the yen, but assume the possibility of further strengthening in the near future.

The price volatility of the Australian dollar has greatly increased in recent days. After attempts to resume the growth, the quotes of the Australian currency fell sharply today after the release of data on the labor market in Australia. Thus, the number of employed people decreased by 0.3 thousand against the expected growth of 13.5 thousand, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 0.4% in July to 6.4%. Tomorrow the course of trading will depend on the statements of the Reserve Bank of Australia on monetary policy. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.

The price of the New Zealand dollar corrected upwards after yesterday's fall, which was associated with weak data on employment in the country. On the other hand, the unemployment rate in the second quarter fell by 0.2% to 5.6%. Negative impact on the quotes today had a fall of the Australian currency. Reduction of the New Zealand dollar is likely to cease in the near future and we will need new signals for determining of the further movement.

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