08.01.2016 - On the currency market today is correction
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro yesterday showed strong growth against the background of the fall of China's stock market and the weakening of the US dollar after the minutes of the previous meeting of the Federal Reserve showed that the number of members of the Federal Open Market Committee are concerned about the prospects of inflation in the United States. It is worth noting that today will be published an important report on the labor market in the US for December (13:30 GMT), which traditionally has a strong influence on investors' expectations regarding the Fed's next steps. In addition, at the beginning of the trading session on the dynamics of trading will affect the data on the volume of industrial production in Germany (07:00 GMT). After the recent growth, we expect the resumption of the negative dynamics and maintain the medium-term and short-term negative view on the euro.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound reached its lowest level since 2010 amid growing investor confidence in the keeping of the Bank of England’s interest rates at the current level in 2016. In addition, the dynamics of the British currency was pressured by lower oil prices and the expectation of a referendum on the country's exit from the European Union that can be held in 2016-2017. Today, the dynamics of trading will affect the data on the trade balance the United Kingdom (09:30 GMT). Our medium-term outlook remains negative with a potential reduction to 1.40.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen started to correct on the background of China's stock market growth, which reduced the tension in the markets and has led to the fixing of positions after a strong strengthening of the yen against the background of increased interest in defensive assets. It is worth noting that the situation in China remains volatile, but according to our estimates the tension will remain soon. On Monday, in Japan will be the day of. We expect a further decline of the yen against the dollar and maintain the medium-term negative outlook.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar corrected upwards after a long decline and reaching the psychologically important level of 0.7000. It is worth noting that the growth on the Chinese stock markets after a strong decline during the week, helped the bulls. Today was published statistics on retail sales in Australia, which rose by 0.4% in November, which coincided with forecasts of analysts. According to our forecasts, the current correction may continue today, but the medium-term negative outlook remains unchanged.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar has stopped falling and started to correct on the background of technical factors, as well as improvement of the situation in the stock market of China, which rose after a strong decrease during the week. After completion of correction, negative trend is likely to resume on the background of strengthening of the dollar, the possibility of further of reducing RBNZ interest rates and weak data on the trade balance of the country. We maintain a negative medium-term outlook and recommend holding short positions.