08.02.2016 - Falling of oil according to our estimates will continue
The price of gold has shown strong growth on the background of the publication of statistics on the labor market in the US, which has been controversial. Thus, the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector in January was 151 thousand, against the forecast of 189 thousand. On the other hand, the unemployment rate fell by 0.1% to 4.9%, while average wages increased in January by 0.5%, which is 0.2% better than expected. Demand for gold in China fell due to the holidays, which will last until next Monday. After celebrating the New Year by the lunar calendar, demand for the metal in China will reduce. Support for gold may be an increase in demand for defensive assets and reduction of the likelihood of the Fed raising interest rates this year. We expect the resumption of the fall of prices in the near future and maintain the medium-term negative outlook.
The price of futures for Light Sweet crude oil continues to decline amid growing oversupply of oil on the market, due to the increase in supply from Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia. Statements of some officials of the largest oil-producing countries have only a short-term impact on the dynamics of prices and we do not expect reaching achieve a real consensus on the reduction of oil production. In this context, our medium-term outlook remains negative and we recommend holding short positions on oil with the potential fall to 25 and 22 dollars per barrel.