08.02.2016 - The US dollar rose after a report on the labor market

Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro showed decline amid stronger US dollar after the release of US labor market report for January. Thus, the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector amounted to 151 thousand, against the forecast of 189 thousand. At the same time, the unemployment rate fell by 0.1% to 4.9%, while average wages increased by 0.5%, which is 0.2% better than expected. This week, we should pay attention to the speeches of Fed Chairman Janet Yellen on Wednesday and Thursday, data on US retail sales and GDP growth in the euro area. Today, the dynamics of trading will affect the news on industrial production in Germany (07:00 GMT) and the index of investor confidence in the Eurozone (09:30 GMT). Our medium-term outlook for the euro remains negative due to the expected enhancement of incentives of the ECB.

Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound weakened on Friday against the background of the strengthening of the US dollar after the release of US labor market report. This week the dynamics of the pound will affect the news on the UK trade balance and industrial production. Today, the volatility on the market will decline. After the recent correction, the prices may continue to fall in the near future. Our medium-term outlook remains negative on the background of speculation on the expected exit of the country from the EU structure.

Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the yen after strong growth by 3.6% last week, which was the highest growth against the US dollar since 2009, started to correct upwards. The reason for the correction was approaching to local minimums and the strengthening of the US dollar after the publication of a report on the labor market in the country. Today have been published positive data on balance of payments of Japan, the surplus of which in December totaled 1.64 trillion yen against the forecast of 1.59 trillion yen. The average salary in December rose by only 0.1% compared to the same period last year, which was significantly worse than the forecast of 0.7%. Tomorrow will be published preliminary data on the volume of orders for engineering equipment in Japan.
Week holidays in China will reduce the volatility on the market. Our medium-term outlook remains negative for the yen.

Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar showed a strong decline on Friday on a stronger US dollar and the negative impact of commodities prices. The volatility this week will be reduced due to public holidays in China, which is associated with the celebration of the New Year according to the lunar calendar. Tomorrow will be published statistics on the index of business sentiment in the Australian business circles. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook for the Australian dollar against the strengthening US currency and lower pressure on commodity prices.

Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar after the downward correction against the strengthening of the US dollar and the Australian dollar reduction, today resumed growth. Its potential is limited and further increase should be used for the accumulation of short positions. Our medium-term outlook remains negative due to the forecast of decrease in interest rates RBNZ on the background of low inflation in the country.

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