08.03.2016 - The strong growth of oil may end soon
The price of gold is consolidating on the background of improved sentiment and reduced demand for defensive assets. Besides, a strong labor market statistics in the United States supports confidence in the Fed raising interest rates this year, which is negative for gold. Support for the metal now has become the weak data on China's trade balance, whose surplus fell to 32.6 billion dollars against 51.2 billion forecasted, but this fact can be explained by the long holidays on the occasion of the New Year in February. Our medium-term outlook for gold remains negative and we expect the resumption of the negative dynamics in the near future.
The price of Light Sweet crude oil continued to rise amid short covering, as well as the hope of meeting the OPEC countries and other large oil producers in Moscow on 20 March. According to our forecasts, this meeting will not have a significant impact on oil production volumes. Iran will continue to increase deliveries after the sanctions were lifted in January. Today, investors were disappointed by the weak data on the trade balance of China, where exports and imports continued to decline. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we recommend to wait for the signal for the opening short positions.