08.03.2016 - Weak trade data in China disappointed markets
American stock markets yesterday continued consolidation in anticipation of new drivers for growth. It is worth noting that the country's market has shown strong growth in recent weeks against the background of the oil price recovery. This week in the United States will not be published really important statistics that can affect the medium-term investor sentiment. Today, the dynamics of trade can affect the news on the index of optimism in the US small business (11:00 GMT). Today we expect a decrease in the indexes in the United States against the backdrop of negative statistics from China. Our forecast for the coming months remains negative.
European stocks today show a negative dynamics amid the deterioration of investors’ sentiment after the publication of weak statistics on the trade balance of China, whose economy has a strong impact on the world economy. Today will be published statistics on the volume of industrial production in Germany (07:00 GMT) and the euro area GDP (10:00 GMT). Today is also worth paying attention to the speech of the Bank of England’s head Mark Carney (9:15 GMT). Investors are waiting for the ECB's statement on monetary policy on Thursday, and in case of extension of stimulus measures, we expect growth on the stock markets of the region. Our medium-term outlook also remains positive.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region showed mixed dynamics. Thus the Japanese assets were supported by final data on GDP growth in Q4, which was revised upward to -0.3% vs. previously expected -0.4%. On the other hand the consumer confidence index in Japan continued to decline and reached a level of 40.1 in February against 42.3 expected. On the other hand, China's trade surplus for February disappointed investors. Thus, the indicator calculated in the US dollar showed a decline to 32.6 billion against 63.3 billion in January and forecast of 51.2 billion. Exports fell by 25.4% against the same period of the last year, against the forecast of 12.5%. This deterioration is due to vacations in connection with the celebration of the New Year. Our medium-term outlook for the region's markets is positive, but we may see a drop in the near future.