08.04.2015 - Concerns about the labor market in the US declined
The price of euro continued to decline against the background of weak statistics on services in the euro zone PMI, which fell to 54.2, vs. 54.3. At the same time, the index of investor confidence in the euro area totaled 20.0, which is 0.9 worse than analysts' expectations. Additional pressure on the euro was the publication of statistics on the number of open positions in the US, which rose to 5.13 billion vs. expected 5.01 billion. Today, the course of trading will affect retail sales data in the euro area (09:00 GMT), as well as publication of the minutes of the previous meeting of the Fed (18:00 GMT). The euro remained under pressure of quantitative easing in the Eurozone and the negotiations on restructuring Greece's debts. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook on the European currency.
The price of the British pound fell, despite the positive statistics on the service PMI, which in March rose to 58.9, vs. forecasted 57.1. Strengthening of the US dollar, could neutralize this positive. Increase in the number of vacancies in the United States has strengthened the belief that the recent weakening of the labor market indicators was temporary, and growth will continue in the second quarter. Today will be published by the Bank of England report on the state of the credit market of Great Britain (08:30 GMT), which may affect the course of trading. Our medium-term view on the British currency remains negative due to the weakening of the euro.
The price of the Japanese yen strengthened sharply after the statement of the Bank of Japan on monetary policy. Proposals for reducing the volume of asset purchases to 45 trillion yen in the year were rejected and the parameters of monetary policy of the Japanese regulator remained unchanged. At the same time, Japan's current account surplus fell to 0.60 trillion yen in February, against 1.06 trillion in January. Further price movement will depend on investors' reactions to the minutes of the previous meeting of the US Federal Reserve. We maintain our medium-term negative view on the Japanese yen.
The price of the Australian dollar was unable to continue to grow after a sharp upward impulse caused by the decision of the Reserve Bank of Australia and left interest rates unchanged at 2.25%. Some analysts forecast a rate cut to 2.00%. It is worth noting that the probability of this step remains high and the next meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia, interest rates could be lowered. Strengthening of the US dollar also contributed to the decline of the Australian currency. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook for the Australian dollar.
The price of theNew Zealand dollar after the start of the recent decline corrected downwards. At the moment, we see a gradual decrease in the amplitude of oscillations that may soon lead to a strong price movement. On the one hand macroeconomic indicators are improving, but low export prices and the negative impact of a slowdown in Australia and China continues to put pressure on the price of the New Zealand dollar. We are waiting for new signals to determine the medium-term price movement of the New Zealand dollar.