08.04.2016 - We are waiting for a strong movement of the euro after consolidation

Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro continues to consolidate after yesterday's publication of the previous meetings of the ECB at which were discussed stronger measures to boost inflation in the euro area. It is worth noting that according to the statement of the Chief Economist of the ECB Pret, the regulator may take additional measures to stimulate the economy of the monetary union. Today we do not expect strong movements on the market due to the lack of important macroeconomic data. On investor sentiment can affect speech of the president Federal Reserve Bank of New York William Dudley. We forecast a drop in euro prices after the current consolidation and maintain the medium-term negative outlook.

Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound fell to the local minimum and continues to consolidate amid expectations of today's publication of important statistics on the volume of industrial production in the country (08:30 GMT). The main factor that puts pressure on the British currency is concerns about the country's possible exit from the European Union after the referendum that will take place on 23 June. Our forecast for the coming months remains negative.

Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the yen corrected downward after the recent significant growth against the US dollar. Today, have been published the data on the country's balance of payments, which is a surplus in February totaled 1.73 trillion vs. 1.57 trillion. The consumer confidence index in March rose to 41.7, which is 1.2 more than the forecast. Bank of Japan and the Government continues to refrain from interference, but the strengthening of the national currency will have negative consequences for the economy and after significant growth, we expect the resumption of the negative dynamics of the yen against the dollar and maintain the medium-term negative outlook.

Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar continues to move following the prices for commodities. The recent weakening of the US dollar, supported the Australian currency, but its potential is limited due to weak data on the trade balance of the country and low commodity prices. Support in the near future will be the improved situation in China and reduction of concerns associated with the second largest economy in the world, which is the largest buyer of Australian commodities. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.

Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar resumed its decline after a correction. The improvement in the trade balance and the growth of exports of dairy products support the New Zealand dollar, but low inflation may lead the RBNZ to further reduction of interest rates, which will be the basis for the continuation of negative dynamics. Our medium-term outlook for the New Zealand dollar remains negative.

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