Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro fell yesterday due to the strengthening US dollar and weak data on the growth of industrial orders in Germany, which totaled 0.9% vs. expected 1.6%. At the same time, the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States totaled 265 thousand, that is 12 thousand better than expected. Investors were in no hurry to accumulate positions before the publication of the report on the US labor market, which will be published today (12:30 GMT) and will affect investors' expectations regarding the timing of the Fed raising interest rates. At the beginning of the trading session on the mood of traders will affect the news on the trade balance and industrial production in Germany (06:00 GMT). Our medium-term outlook for the euro is negative.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound soared after the publication of exit polls, according to which the Conservative Party won 316 seats in the parliament, and Labour Party 239 of 650 seats. According to analysts, the process of government formation will be longer, but the victory of the conservatives indicates stability in the country. Today, the course of trading will be affected by the news on the trade balance in the UK (08:30 GMT) and statistics from the US, which may lead to the strengthening of the dollar. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook, but the growth of quotations may continue in the near future.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The Japanese yen fell against the growth of quotations of the US dollar, which was caused by a strong labor market statistics of the country. At the same time, activity is restrained by the anticipation of the release of an important report on the labor market in the US today. Improving the unemployment situation will lead to the strengthening of the US dollar against the Japanese yen. Monetary policy in Japan is ultra-soft, while in the US is expected the increase in interest rates. This fact continues to put pressure on the Japanese currency, which is also declining due to weak data on the growth of the economy. Our medium-term outlook for the yen remains negative and we expect increased volatility today.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar continued to decline due to the strengthening of the US dollar. In addition, the fall in prices is due to the weak static on the labor market of the country. Investors continue to monitor the quotations of iron ore - the main export product of Australia and stabilized after rising. We expect a further fall in the price of the Australian dollar after the recent RBA lowering interest rates and expected growth of the US currency. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar continues to decline after the positive trend has changed to negative, which was caused by weak data on the labor market of the country. The trade balance of the country also does not meet the expectations of analysts. Today price volatility will be increased due to the expected strong price movement of the US dollar. Our medium-term forecast. We expect a continuation of the downward movement of prices in the near future.