08.05.2015 - We expect a further fall in oil prices

The price of gold fell yesterday against the strengthening of the US dollar after the publication of statistics to reduce the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States up to 265 thousand against the expected 277 thousand. It is worth noting that the rise in yields of US and European bonds continues to negatively impact on the attractiveness of gold as a safe asset. Today we expect high volatility in gold prices due to release a report on the labor market in the US (12:30 GMT). Improving the employment situation will lead to an increase in the probability of a fast increase in interest rates by the Fed, which will be negatively displayed on the price of gold. We keep medium-term positive outlook for gold and expect the increase in demand in case of a significant correction on the stock markets.

The price of Light Sweet crude oil price continued to decline against the strengthening of the US dollar, also in connection with the fixation of positions after strong growth in recent weeks. The central theme currently is the reduction in the number of drilling rigs in the United States and the expected decline in oil production in the country. In the near future the market will shift the focus to the negotiations on Iran's nuclear program as a result of which the country can increase the volume of production by 1 million barrels to 3.8 million barrels in six months and up to 4 million barrels in less than a year, which will increase imbalances of demand and the supply of oil on the market. Today, the course of trading will affect the news on the US labor market and statistics on the number of drilling rigs in the United States. Our medium-term outlook for oil remains negative.

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