08.06.2015 - Gold can renew the lows of the year

The price of gold fell on Friday in connection with the increase in the number of new jobs in the United States in May to 280 thousand, which is much better than the expected 222 thousand. It is worth noting that the average wage increased by 0.3% against the expected 0.2% increase. This fact allowed to neutralize the negative from the growth of the unemployment rate in May by 0.1% to 5.5%. Investors continue to follow the negotiations between Greece and creditors. We recall that the country should carry out the payment of the IMF in the amount of about 1.6 billion euros in one payment. The demand for jewelry in Asia remains low due to seasonal factors and the buyers are waiting for further price reduction. It is worth recalling that the downside is limited by the cost of gold production levels of about 1000-1100 dollars per troy ounce. Our medium-term outlook remains positive, but in the near future there is a possibility of the price fall.

The price of Light Sweet crude oil showed a sharp decline due to the positive dynamics of the US dollar, which was due to a strong labor market statistics in the United States. At the same time, OPEC decided to maintain current oil production quotas at 30 million barrels per day. It is worth noting that last month the average daily production volume exceeded 31 million barrels per day. According to most members of OPEC price of 75 dollars per barrel is a reasonable and fair for the market. At the same time, the representative of Iran announced on the list of oil projects for participation of foreign companies, but it will be presented in September in the case of lifting of sanctions on oil exports. The number of active rigs in the US fell last week by 4 units to 642. We maintain a negative medium-term outlook for oil.

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