08.06.2015 - Volatility today will fall
US stock indexes ended the trading session on Friday near the previous close levels. The reason for the deterioration in sentiment was the news on the US labor market. Thus, the US unemployment rate rose in May to 5.5%, which is 0.1% worse than the previous figure, but this negative fact was offset by the positive news on the growth of new jobs in the US by 280 thousand, vs. expected 222 thousand. This fact has increased the likelihood of the Fed raising interest rates in the United States this year that would have a negative impact on investor sentiment. Today we expect low volatility. We keep medium-term positive outlook, but the growth potential is low.
European stocks fell on Friday and continued to show a negative trend amid the statement the Minister of Finance of Greece to unite four payments to IMF that are to be made until 19 June. The total amount of payment should be near 1.23 billion SDR. Today, was released the data on the growth of the trade surplus in Germany, which rose in April to 22.3 billion against the expected 18.1 billion. At the same time, the volume of industrial production in Germany rose by 0.9%, which is 0.3% better than the estimate of experts. On the other hand the index of investor confidence declined to 17.1 in June against the forecast of 18.9. We expect volatility to remain high in the coming weeks due to the Greek crisis, but in the case of reaching a consensus, we expect strong growth in prices.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region ended the trading session near the previous close levels. The exception was the Shanghai index which rose against the background of unexpectedly strong statistics on China's trade balance, a surplus which rose to 59.5 in May against the forecast of 44.9 billion and 34.1 billion in April. It is worth noting the strong growth in Japan's GDP by 1.0% in the first quarter of this year. We recall that the previous estimate of growth was at 0.6%. The economy was supported by exports to China and the United States and domestic consumption. We expect further growth on the stock markets of the region.