08.06.2016 - On the markets remains the uncertainty
American stock indexes showed little change yesterday in connection with the absence of any factors capable of supporting the growth and the desire of investors not to risk in connection with the approach to historical highs. Support for the market was the increase in oil prices, but the situation on the commodity markets also remains fragile. It should be noted that labor costs in the US rose by 4.5% in the 1st quarter, which is 0.5% more than the forecast. Today, the dynamics of trading will affect the number of vacancies in the US (14:00 GMT), which may affect the assessment of labor market conditions in the United States. We expect the beginning of a correction in the US market in the near future and the trigger may become a drop in oil prices.
Major stock indexes in Europe show a slight decrease against the background of uncertainty on the markets. Today in the UK was published important data on industrial production, which in April rose by 2.0%, against no change expected. It is also worth noting that yesterday were released the news for GDP growth in the euro area by 0.6% in the 1st quarter, which is 0.1% better than expected. In the near future, special attention will be turned to the referendum on the UK's membership in the EU, and amid speculation on this issue, there may be a strong movement of local indexes. Our medium-term outlook for European markets remains positive.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region did not show unified dynamics today. The Japanese market has grown despite the strengthening of the yen. The reason for optimism was the publication of important statistics on the growth of GDP in the 1st quarter by 0.5%, which is 0.1% more than the previous estimate. The volume of bank lending in the country grew by 2.2% in May compared with the same period last year. In China, was published important statistics on the trade balance of the country, which totaled 50.0 billion dollars compared with 45.6 billion in the previous period. Tomorrow we should pay attention to the statistics on inflation in China and orders for engineering products in Japan. Given the more positive data in the region, we maintain the positive medium-term outlook, but the negative external influences may force us to revise forecasts.