08.06.2016 - The yen strengthened against the background of the statistics on the growth of GDP
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro continues to consolidate near the important level of 1.1400 after the Fed's probability of interest rates hike in June fell to minimal levels. It is worth noting that yesterday was published an important data on GDP growth in the euro area by 0.6% in Q1 against the forecast of 0.5%. In addition, US investors were disappointed by the data on consumer lending in the country, which in April totaled only 13.4 billion against 28.4 billion in the previous month. Today, the dynamics of trading can significantly affect the amount of open positions on the US labor market (14:00 GMT). Our medium-term outlook for the euro remains negative due to the divergence of monetary policy of the ECB and the Fed.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound continues to show a strong movement against the backdrop of controversial polls publication regarding a referendum on Britain's membership in the European Union that will take place on 23 June. Today, the dynamics of the pound will affect important data on industrial production in the UK (08:30 GMT). According to our estimates, the volatility will remain high in the coming weeks and we expect growth of pound quotations after the referendum, in connection with the forecast of voters’ refusal from the exit of the country from the EU.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen today showed growth against the US dollar after was published news on the growth of Japan's GDP by 0.5% in the 1st quarter against the previous estimate of growth by 0.4%. At the same time, the current account surplus totaled 1,63 trillion yen in April, which is significantly worse than the forecast of 2.04 trillion yen. Tomorrow in the country will be released the report on the volume of orders for machine-building equipment, which can affect the mood of investors. In case of continuation of the strengthening of the yen against the dollar the country's central bank may use foreign exchange intervention to deal with the currency strengthening. Our medium-term outlook remains negative for the yen.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar extended gains after the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to maintain the country's monetary policy settings unchanged and said about the positive performance of domestic consumption and export. Today, the positive statistics on the trade balance of China was published, according to which a surplus in April totaled 50.0 billion dollars against 45.6 billion in March. Our medium-term outlook remains negative due to the forecast fall in prices on commodity markets.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar extended gains after the Australian currency. Positive dynamics on commodity markets and strong statistics on China's trade surplus, a positive display on the interest of investors in the New Zealand dollar. We expect a rise in volatility after the statement of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (21:00 GMT), but do not expect any change in its monetary policy settings. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we expect the resumption of the negative dynamics in the near future.