08.07.2016 - Markets are waiting for statistics on the labor market in the US
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro continued consolidation before today's publication of an important report on the labor market in the US for June (12:30 GMT). It is worth noting that yesterday were published positive news on the increase in the number of jobs in the US private sector by ADP by 172 thousand, compared to the forecast 158 thousand. Today, the dynamics of trading will also affect the data on the trade balance in Germany (06:00 GMT). Investors do not expect an increase in interest rates in the United States at the end of the month due to the increased risk after a referendum on the UK exit from the European Union. We expect the fall of the euro in the medium term, and its growth is possible only within the correction.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound is consolidating after the recent decline. The growth of quotations within the correction is limited due to the negative consequences of the referendum results in the country. The fall of activity in the construction sector and a likely decline in the manufacturing and service sectors will put pressure on the British currency, together with the outflow of capital and the relocation of a number of major corporations from London, which will lose the status of Europe's financial center. We expect the fall of the British currency quotations in the near future and medium term.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen continued to strengthen due to a further decline in oil prices and publication a strong of statistics on the country's balance of payments surplus which in May totaled 1.41 trillion yen. On the other hand the average level of wages in Japan fell by 0.2% in May, which increases the pressure on inflation and stimulates the Bank of Japan to take additional measures to stimulate the growth of the consumer price index in the country. The situation on the stock and commodity markets remains unstable and it will support the demand for defensive assets at a high level in the near future we may see a further strengthening of the yen.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar corrected due to lower prices for oil and other commodities, which has traditionally had a strong influence on the local currency. It is worth noting that the demand for the Australian dollar is supported by an increased interest in the country's government bonds, the yield of which is higher in comparison with the US. Given the expected decline in commodity markets and rising concerns about the global economy, we expect challenging steps by the Reserve Bank of Australia, which negatively displayed on the Australian dollar. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar continued to rise and approached to the maximum levels of this year against the background of the increased interest of investors in government bonds of the country, which is caused by the recent decline in yields of 10-year US bonds to historic lows. The next week the price movement will depend on the dynamics of prices for commodities, as well as vital statistics on the Chinese economy. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we expect the price decline in the near future.