08.08.2016 - Technical view
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro showed decline against the US dollar against the publication of a strong labor market statistics in the United States that pointed to the steady growth of the economy and increased likelihood of the Fed raising interest rates this year. Thus, the number of jobs outside the agricultural sector increased in July by 255 thousand against the forecast of 180 thousand, the average hourly wage in the same period increased by 0.3%, which is 0.1% more than expected. Today, the dynamics of trading will affect the data on the volume of industrial production in Germany (06:00 GMT) and the index of investor confidence from Sentix in Eurozone (08:30 GMT). Our medium-term outlook for the euro remains negative due to the divergence of the Fed’s and the ECB's monetary policy.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound continued to fall against the background of strengthening of US dollar. As a result, quotations came close to the psychologically important level of 1.3000. On the dynamics of trading continue to affect the negative expectations of investors about consequences of the UK’s exit from the EU. Today, in the country will not be published important data, but tomorrow we should pay attention to the statistics on industrial production. Our medium-term outlook remains negative is British currency and we are forecasting a decrease in the near future.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen declines against the US dollar after the publication of strong data on employment in the United States. In addition, the demand for defensive assets has fallen. It is worth noting that the positive balance of payments statistics on Japan, which rose to 1.65 trillion yen in June, against 1.41 trillion yen earlier, could not change the mood of investors. Tomorrow will be released the important data on the volume of orders in the machine-building equipment in Japan. Investors will continue to evaluate data on the US labor market. We forecast a drop of the yen in the medium term and the near future.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar has fallen because of rising US dollar, as well as fixing positions after the recent strengthening. It should be noted that support for the Australian currency today was the positive statistics from China, where the country's trade surplus totaled 52.3 billion dollars against 47.6 billion dollars forecast. Tomorrow, will be released the data on the index of business confidence in Australia. A strong focus in the near future will be on the dynamics of the US dollar and of the situation on the commodity markets. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar has fallen due to the strengthening of the American currency after a strong report on employment in the country. Investors fixed positions after recent gains, as well as on expectation of publication of the decision of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on monetary policy on Wednesday night. The probability of lower interest rates after a similar step by the Reserve Bank of Australia is high, that will result in lower prices and the New Zealand dollar. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we expect increased volatility in the near future.