08.09.2014 - Waiting for a referendum on Scottish independence has led to falling of the British pound
The price of euro during the last trading week fell on the background of controversial statistics on the labor market in the United States. Thus the unemployment rate fell to 6.1% which was in line with expectations, but the number of jobs outside the agricultural sector in the country increased by the minimum rate since the beginning of the year and totaled 142 thousand, versus expected 226 thousand. At the same time, euro area GDP in the second quarter did not change, confirming the predictions of experts. Positive for the euro was the data on the growth of industrial production in Germany by 1.9% in July, compared with an expected growth of 0.5%. We expect a decline in volatility this week and possible correction, but the medium-term trend remains negative and we recommend holding short positions.
The price of the British pound fell sharply earlier this week against the publication of survey data on the future referendum on Scottish independence. Thus, according to the research the number of pro-independence exceeded the number of those who are going to vote for the saving of a single state. The referendum will be held on September 18 and before this period the price of the British pound will not grow, but after we can see a significant growth. Today the course of trading may be affected by the statistics on house prices index (07:00 GMT).
The price of the Japanese yen continues to trade near its highest level in a period of almost 6 years. The reason for the weakening of the national currency of Japan was the difference of the monetary policy of the USA, which economy is showing strong results and Japan, where in the previous quarter was recorded the biggest GDP decline by 1.8% from the first quarter of 2009. The reason for the sharp deterioration in performance was the increase of the sales tax by 3% to 8% in April. Another tax increase is expected in October 2015. The trade surplus totaled 0.1 trillion. in July with an expected growth to 0.18 trillion. Tomorrow we should pay attention to statistics on the monetary base, consumer confidence, orders for machinery equipment, as well as the minutes of the previous meeting of the Bank of Japan. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook for the yen.
The Australian dollar corrected downwards despite the positive trade balance in China. Thus, the surplus in August rose to 49.8 billion, against the forecast of 40.8 billion. Reason for this was the increase in exports by 9.4% and a decrease in imports by 2.4%. Tomorrow trading dynamics will depend on the index of business confidence in Australia. Quotes of the Australian currency will also be supported by strengthening stop of American dollar against the controversial data on the labor market in the United States. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook for the Australian dollar.
Volatility of the New Zealand dollar remains low. Despite a positive trade balance in China, today the price started to correct downwards. The reason for the negative sentiment is a growing trade deficit and low export prices. Increased volatility this week is forecasted on Wednesday evening after the statement of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on monetary policy. We expect further price decline of the New Zealand currency in the near future.