08.09.2015 - China continued to reduce imports
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro rose today after consolidation of quotations yesterday caused by the holiday in the US. It is worth noting that China's trade surplus rose in August, which reduced investors' concerns about the crisis in the country. Industrial production in Germany rose in July by 0.7%, against a drop of 0.9% in June. At the same time, the index of investor confidence in the euro area in September fell to 13.6 against 16.2 expected due to the fall on the stock markets and the devaluation of the Chinese yuan. Today, the course of trading will be affected by the data on the trade balance in Germany (06:00 GMT) and France (6:45 GMT), and GDP growth in the euro area in the second quarter (09:00 GMT). In the US, will be released statistics on the index of optimism in the small business (10:00 GMT). We maintain a medium-term negative outlook for the euro, but we can see a slight fall in the near future.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound rose yesterday against the background of US dollar sales. Trading volumes were low due to the holiday in America. Investors are waiting for the publication of a report on the trade balance and industrial production in the UK, which will be released tomorrow. In addition, on Thursday will be issued the statement to the Bank of England on monetary policy which will include assessment of the impact of the crisis inn China's on economy of the UK. Our medium-term outlook remains negative for the pound, but in the near future we may see continued growth.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen strengthened after today's publication of the final report on Japan's GDP, which in the second quarter fell by 0.3%, which is 0.1% better than analysts' expectations. At the same time the country's current account surplus widened to 1.32 trillion in July against the forecast of 1.25 trillion yen. Tomorrow will be published statistics on consumer confidence and the volume of orders for engineering equipment in Japan. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we expect renewal of falling prices in the medium term and a return to the lows of the year.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar rose today against the backdrop of the weakening US dollar. It should be noted the statistics of the index business sentiment in Australia, which fell by 1 in August against 4 in July. It should be noted that the statistics on China's trade surplus, which rose to a surplus of 60.2 billion in August against the forecast of 48.6 billion that had a negative impact on the Australian currency, which was caused by the reduction of imports by 14.3% for the year. Tomorrow we should pay attention to the statistics on consumer confidence in Australia. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar is corrected upwards due to technical factors and the weakening of the US dollar. Investors are waiting for the decision of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on monetary policy on Wednesday night. In case of further reduction in interest rates or a hint of such a move in the near future, we will see continued downward movement of prices of the New Zealand currency. We expect the price drop to 0.60 in the coming months.