08.09.2015 - Gold continues to consolidate

The price of gold continues to consolidate around the level of 1120 dollars per troy ounce. Investor activity was low yesterday in connection with the holiday in the US. The demand for protective assets decreased due to the rise on Chinese stock markets. Traders are in no hurry to open new positions before the Fed statement on monetary policy on September 17. Raising interest rates is partially taken into account in the price, but the tightening of monetary policy will lead to a drop in the price of gold. According to our estimates, such a sharp drop in gold in summer was unreasonable and in autumn we can see a rise in the price, which will be supported by increased seasonal demand in India and China.

The price of Light Sweet crude oil fell yesterday on the background of the revision of estimates of the growth of China's GDP in 2014 to 7.3% versus the previous estimate of 7.4%. Today, support for oil was the news of Japan's GDP, which according to the final report for the second quarter fell by 0.3%, compared with an expected decline of 0.4%. Strong influence on the course of trading today will have the data on GDP growth in the 2nd quarter. Investors continue to monitor the volume of oil inventories and production in the United States. We see no reason to change the negative trend and the price will soon be consolidated around the level of 45 dollars per barrel. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.

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