08.09.2016 - The yen has stabilized after was released the statistics on Japan's GDP
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro is consolidating after recently increased against the background of weak statistics from the US. Investors are waiting for the press conference by ECB President Mario Draghi (12:30 GMT) and will follow its rhetoric regarding further stimulus plans by the ECB. Among the statistics from the United States we should pay attention to the data on the volume of consumer lending in the country (19:00 GMT). The growth potential of the euro in the near future is low because of saving the probability of the Fed raising interest rates this year. We expect increased volatility, but the medium-term negative outlook remains unchanged.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound corrected downwards after the recent increase caused by the weakening of the US dollar. It should be noted that the head of the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said about the positive effect of the last interest rate cut to 0.25%, which is a buffer for the British economy, and will allow to leave the EU with smaller losses for the economy. Tomorrow, on the dynamics of trading will affect news on the production in the construction sector of the country in July. Our medium-term outlook remains negative on the background of the expected consequences of the country's exit from the EU and the strengthening of the US dollar.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen stabilized after the recent strengthening caused by negative news on foreign currency reserves in the country that has lowered expectations for long-term period of incentive program. GDP growth in the second quarter was 0.2%, against expectations of zero growth. On the other hand, the current account surplus totaled 1.45 trillion yen in July against expectations of 1.59 trillion yen. Tomorrow investors will be watching the data on the tertiary index of business activity in the country. Our medium-term outlook remains negative on the background of the divergence in monetary policy of the Fed and the Bank of Japan.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar has stabilized after strong growth in recent days. It is worth mentioning that yesterday was published statistics according to which GDP in Australia rose 0.5% in the second quarter against the forecast of 0.6%. Today it became known that Australia's trade deficit totaled 2.41 billion in July against the forecast of 2.65 billion. On the other hand, the trade surplus in China, which is a major buyer of Australian products in August totaled 52.1 billion dollars, compared with the expectation of 57.9 billion dollars. The dynamics of the Australian currency in the near future will affect the price of oil and gold. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we look forward to the beginning of the correction in the near future.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar showed strong growth in the previous days, due to the support of the Australian dollar, the fall of the US currency and the improvement of the situation in the dairy products market, which is the main export group. According to our estimates, potential for further increase in the price is low and the probability of correction after recent gains significantly increased. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.