08.10.2014 - On the stock markets of the world the is the negative mood
American stock market continued to decline due to lower growth forecast for the world's GDP. Thus, in the IMF report, was stated that in 2014, the world economy will grow by 3.3%, although earlier forecast of growth was 3.4%. In April, the IMF forecast growth was 3.7%, but the deterioration of the situation in Japan, the European Union and Russia has led to the revision of the forecasts. Negative for the market also have become the data on reducing the volume of consumer credit in the United States to 13.5 billion against predicted 20.3 billion. Today, investors expect the publication of minutes of the previous meeting of the Fed, in which can be hints for periods of rising interest rates. We keep the medium-term negative outlook on the American stock market.
European stocks continued to decrease after the release of data on the fall in industrial production in Germany by 4.0% versus the expected decline of 1.4%. At the same time, industrial production in the UK in August, has not changed, despite the expected increase of 0.2%. The IMF lowered its growth forecast for the euro area by 0.2% to 1.3%. Today, investors will expect the Fed meeting minutes and will not be in a hurry to accumulate positions in connection with the beginning of corporate reporting season in the United States. We expect continued downward movement on European stock markets due to the deterioration of macroeconomic indicators and the low efficiency of stimulus measures by the ECB.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region continued to decline. Negative for the Chinese and Australian market was the data on China's services PMI, which fell to 53.5 in September, that is 0.6 worse than the previous figure. The Japanese market fell against the strengthening of the yen and weaker balance of payments data for August. Thus, the trade surplus narrowed to 0.13 trillion, against expected 0.19 trillion. Also, it is worth recalling that the IMF has revised its GDP growth forecast to 0.9% in Japan, against the previous forecast of 1.6%. Given the weakness of the Japanese economy and the slowdown in the Chinese industry, we keep the medium-term outlook for the markets in the region.