08.12.2014 - ​China's trade surplus has grown

The price of euro in the last trading session of the week showed a sharp decline against the strengthening of the US dollar. Thus, the US currency was supported by the news on the growth of the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector to 321 thousand, against the expected 231 thousand. The US unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.8%. GDP of Eurozone in the 3rd quarter increased by 0.2%, which has met the forecasts of analysts, and the volume of industrial orders in Germany in October rose by 2.5%, compared with an expected growth of 0.6%. Today, volatility will be low. The course of trading will be affected by the Friday's data on the US labor market, the volume of industrial production in Germany (07:00 GMT) and the index of investor's confidence in the Eurozone (09:30 GMT). We maintain our medium-term negative outlook for the euro and recommend holding short positions.

The price of the British pound has overcome a strong support level at 1.5600 and continued to decline. The reason for this movement was the strengthening of the US dollar after the publication of positive data on the labor market in America. Today we expect a continuation of the dynamics of the Friday, but tomorrow volatility may increase due to the publication of statistics on retail sales and industrial production in the country. The euro weakens the British currency. We expect a continuation of the negative dynamics of the price of the British pound in the near future.

The price of the Japanese yen stopped the decline after the fall against the dollar strengthening on Friday, as well as the controversial statistics from Japan. Thus, the country's GDP in Q3 fell by 0.5%, which is 0.1% less than the previous figure. At the same time, the balance of payments in Japan in October showed an increase to 0.95 trillion yen, against the forecast of 0.46 trillion. Tomorrow the course of trading will be affected by data on orders for machinery equipment in November. Today we expect a low price volatility and maintain a medium-term negative outlook on the Japanese yen in the medium term.

The price of the Australian dollar continued to fall against the background of statistics from China. Thus, it became known that China's trade surplus totaled 54.5 billion in November. Imports into China fell by 6.7%, which was the reason for the fall of the Australian currency. We recall that China is a major importer of Australian products. Tomorrow in the country will be published the data on the index of business confidence. We expect a further decline of quotations against the strengthening of the US dollar and weak data on the Australian economy.

The fall of the New Zealand dollar, which was triggered by the strengthening of the US dollar on Friday, continued today in connection with a reduction in imports in China by 6.7% in November. We recall that the main trading partner for New Zealand is China. In addition, low export prices of the country’s export goods among which are agricultural products and commodities continue to put pressure on the quotations of the New Zealand dollar. We see no reason to change the current trend and maintain the medium-term negative outlook.

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