08.12.2015 - Weak data on China's trade balance adversely affected the value of the Australian dollar
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro continued to decline after a sharp rise last week. The high probability of the Fed raising interest rates due to the strong statistics on the US labor market is a major factor that negatively affects the price of the European currency. In addition, the recent strengthening of incentives from the ECB for supporting the inflation also puts pressure on the euro. Today, the dynamics of trading will be affected by the data on Eurozone GDP (10:00 GMT) and the number of vacancies in the labor market of the USA (15:00 GMT). We expect a continuation of current negative dynamics of prices in the near future and maintain the medium-term negative outlook for the euro.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound continues to gradually decline after strong growth last week. Easing of monetary policy in the euro area will continue to put pressure on the euro, which is negatively displayed on the pound. At the same time, the expected raising of interest rates of the Fed will also lead to the fall of the pound against the US dollar. Today, on the dynamics of trading will affect news on industrial production in the United Kingdom (09:30 GMT). Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen strengthened today after the publication of the report on GDP growth in the third quarter by 0.3%, which is 0.2% better than expected. Preliminary figure was -0.2%. At the same time, the balance of payments improved in October to 1.49 trillion yen versus 0.78 trillion in September. Tomorrow may also be a strong price movement after the publication of the report on the volume of orders for engineering equipment. Our medium-term outlook remains negative due to the expected tightening of monetary policy of the Fed.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar accelerated decline today after the publication of weak statistics on China's trade surplus, which fell to 54.1 billion dollars compared to the forecasted growth of up to 64.2 billion dollars. Exports in November fell by 6.8%, compared to the same period last year, while imports fell by 8.7%, compared with an expected decline in imports by 12.6%. The index of investor sentiment in Australia improved to 5 in November, which is 2 more than the previous month. Tomorrow we should pay attention to the data on the index of consumer confidence in Australia. We maintain a negative medium-term outlook for the Australian currency.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar decline has slowed after a strong correction at the beginning of the trading week. The negative effect of lower Australian dollar and weak data on China's trade surplus was projected in connection with the desire of investors to take profits after a recent fall. Investors are waiting for the decision of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on monetary policy in the country tomorrow night. Low inflation allows a further reduction in interest rates. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.