08.07.2014 - ​Traders are waiting for data on industry in the UK

The price of euro rose slightly yesterday on the background of contradictory statistics. On the one hand, industrial production in the eurozone's biggest economy - Germany showed a decline by 1.8%, compared with an expected 0.3% growth. On the other hand the index of investor confidence in the euro area in July rose to 10.1, which is 2.6 better than the forecast. Yesterday's trading after a long weekend in the U.S. passed sluggishly but today it will depend on the dynamics of the trade balance in Germany (06:00 GMT) and France (6:45 GMT), and the index of small business optimism in the U.S. in June (11: 30 GMT) and the volume of U.S. consumer lending in May (19:00 GMT). Our medium-term outlook for the euro rem

British pound yesterday showed rather sluggish dynamics due to the lack of important news, both in the UK and USA. Nevertheless, quotes of the pair showed a slight decrease. Today we will see an increase in volatility in connection with the release of industrial production data for May (8:30 GMT). The main event of the week will be the decision of the Bank of England on interest rate. We do not expect it to change at this meeting, but the comments of the head of the Bank may affect the price movement in the near term. We maintain a positive medium-term outlook for the pound.

Japanese Yen could not continue to decline yesterday and began to strengthen. Today, the national currency of Japan supported the trade balance of the country in May, where the surplus rose to 0.38 trillion yen, which is 0.21 trillion better than the forecast, and almost 3 times more than indicator of the preceding month. Bank lending grew by 2.3% in June, compared to 2.2% in May, indicating the growth of business activity. Despite positive economic indicators, the Bank of Japan policy is ultra-soft and we expect a weaker yen in the medium term.

Corrective gains of the Australian dollar after the sharp decline in the previous week accelerated after the release of data on the index of business confidence in Australia, which in June rose by 1 point to 8. Further movement will depend on the dynamics of prices for major export commodities like iron ore and copper, as well as data on consumer price inflation in China, which will be released tomorrow. In the coming days we can see the growth in share price, but keep medium-term negative outlook with a view about 0.92.

The New Zealand Dollar within the lateral movement showed a slight increase, despite the message of the fall of the index business confidence in New Zealand in the 2nd quarter to 32 which is 20 points worse than the previous figure. Economic indices in the country deteriorate, but still indicate its steady growth. We expect that the price in the near future will continue to move around the current levels.

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