08.08.2014 - The fall of indexes accelerated

American stock markets, despite the positive opening of the trading session, finished the day lower. The reason for optimism has become corporate news, as well as decline in the number of initial unemployment claims in the United States to 289 thousand, against an expected growth to 305 thousand. Positive dynamics has been replaced by fall due to rising concerns about the possible invasion of Russian troops in Ukraine and the statements of Mario Draghi about the possible negative consequences of the imposition of sanctions against Russia for the euro area economy. Today the course of trading will be affected by the data on wholesale inventories in the United States (14:00 GMT). We maintain a medium-term outlook for the American market.

June 25, 2014 USSPX Graph

The fall of European stock markets extended yesterday. The ECB and the Bank of England left interest rates unchanged at the levels of 0.15% and 0.50%. Also, the head of the ECB Mario Draghi noted that it is too early to assess the possible negative consequences of the Ukrainian crisis, but sanctions against Russia will have a negative effect on the EU economy. The volume of industrial production in Germany rose in June by only 0.3%, compared with an expected by 1.4% increase. Today, the European markets are likely to continue to fall on the negative statistics on reduction of the trade surplus of Germany in July to 16.2 billion, which is 3.6 billion less than the forecast. We expect continued downward movement in the medium term.

Most markets in the Asia-Pacific region continued to decline. Chinese indexes are supported by the positive statistics on the trade balance of the country, which in July unexpectedly rose to 47.3 billion, which is 21.3 billion, better than analysts' expectations. At the same time, Japanese indexes accelerated the decline due to negative investor sentiment in the world and the sharp strengthening of the yen. Australian markets are under the pressure of weak labor market statistics of the country where the unemployment rate rose by 0.4% to 6.4%. We maintain a medium-term negative outlook on the stock markets in the region.

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