09.01.2015 - Data on unemployment in the US will lead to a strong movement on the market
American stock indexes continued the upward movement after a significant decline in the beginning of the month. Positive for the market was growing confidence that ECB may announce an enhanced program of asset purchases that have a positive impact on the stock markets in the world. In addition, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the US fell by 4 thousand to 294 thousand. Today, we are forecasting an increase in volatility in price due to the publication of data on the unemployment rate and the number of new jobs in the non-agricultural sector of the US (12:30 GMT). We maintain our medium-term negative outlook on the US stock market.
Major stock indexes in Europe yesterday showed significant growth due to speculation regarding soon launching of a large-scale asset purchases by the ECB. Let us remind that this decision can be made on 22 of January. In addition, index growth yesterday was supported by the news on the growth of retail sales by 0.6% against the expected 0.3%. Today, investors were disappointed by the weak data on German trade balance surplus which fell to 17.7 in November against 20.6 in October. In addition, the volume of industrial production in the UK in November fell by 0.1% against the expected growth of 0.2%, while construction output fell by 2.0% against the expected growth of 1.3%. Today we predict fixation of positions before the weekend and keep the medium-term negative outlook.
Indexes of the Asian and Pacific region showed a mixed trend, despite speculation about reduction of reserve requirements in the China's banking system, which should be positively displayed on investments in the region. Consumer inflation in China rose to 1.5%, which is 0.1% better than the previous figure, but the production of inflation showed a decrease to -3.3%, which is 0.6% less than in November. On Monday in Japan is a day off. Despite the improvement in investor sentiment, further growth is limited due to the weak macro statistics in the region. Our medium-term view on the stock markets in the region continues to be negative.