09.01.2015 - Investors are waiting for information on new jobs in the US
The price of euro yesterday continued to decline, but quotes of the European currency was supported by the data on the growth of retail sales in the euro area by 0.6%, which is 2 times better than forecasted value. On the other hand the price of the euro is under the pressure of expectations of launching a full-scale asset purchases by the ECB, the decision on which may come as early as January 22 at a meeting of the ECB. In addition, on January 25 in Greece will be held parliamentary elections that may lead to the victory of the opposition forces and the exit of Greece from the Eurozone. The focus of investors today will be on the data on the labor market in the US (12:30 GMT). We expect further price reduction of the euro in the medium term, but today we can see a correction on the background of fixing positions before the weekend.
The price of the British pound yesterday is almost unchanged in the absence of changes in the rhetoric of the Bank of England on monetary policy. It is worth noting that yesterday was published a statement of the Bank of England on monetary policy. Investors expect today's publication of statistics on the US labor market, which can lead to a significant increase in volatility. In addition, the course of trading will be affected by the data on the trade balance, industrial production and construction in the country (08:30 GMT). Our medium-term outlook for the British pound is negative.
The price of the Japanese yen yesterday dropped due to lower levels of concern about the prospects of growth on the stock markets. Recovering oil prices has also led to sales of defensive assets. Today quotations of the Japanese currency will rise again before the publication of data on the US labor market. In case of improving the situation on the market we can see the strengthening of the dollar, but in this period, the unemployment figures may be weaker than the previous figures. Data on the index of leading economic indicators, which fell to 103.8% in November, against the expected growth of up to 104.9% could not change the course of trading. On Monday in Japan is the day off. We predict the fall of the yen in the medium term.
The Australian dollar rose slightly on the news from China, where there is information about the likely reduction of reserve requirements in the banking system that will stimulate lending in the second largest economy in the world. China is a major importer of the Australian products. Australian retail sales in November rose by 0.1% vs. expected 0.3%. Despite the current rise, the price of the Australian dollar, according to our estimates continue to decline in the medium term and we recommend holding short positions.
The New Zealand dollar extended gains in connection with the expectation of reducing reserve requirements in China, which will lead to increased investment in the country, which should positively be displayed on commodities. Statistics on consumer price index in China, which was 1.5% in December compared to 1.4% in November, also positively affected by the price dynamics of the New Zealand currency. Despite this, the low export prices continue to put pressure on the quotes of the New Zealand currency.