09.02.2015 - Markets monitor the Greek crisis
US stock indexes on Friday could not continue to grow and the publication of positive statistics on the labor market in the US, where the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector grew by 257 thousand, which is 26 thousand above expectations of experts. This fact increases the likelihood of higher interest rates from the Federal Reserve in June. Tightening of monetary policy will have a negative impact at the growth of indexes. Today will not be published important macroeconomic data, and course of trading will be relatively quiet. Our long-term outlook for the US market remains positive, but in the near future, we may see a drop in prices.
Major European stock indexes fell on Friday on weak statistics on industrial production in Germany, which in December rose by only 0.1%, which is 0.3% worse than analysts' forecasts. At the same time Germany refused to provide Greece with a stabilizing credit, which could give more time to agree on the conditions of the country's debt restructuring with creditors. Greek issue will maintain volatility at a high level. Today, the markets have been supported by data on the trade balance of Germany, which rose to 21.8 billion against the expected 18.2 billion. The index of investor confidence in the euro area in February has grown to 12.4, which is 9.0 better than the forecast. We maintain a positive medium-term outlook for the stock markets in the region in connection with the program of quantitative easing in the Eurozone.
Markets in the Asia-Pacific region showed mixed trends. For example, the Japanese market was supported by the weakening of the yen after the publication of data on the US labor market. Chinese investors have not shown the unity of the country and the markets ended the day with a slight change. China's trade surplus has grown to 60.0 billion dollars, compared with an expected decrease to 48.9 billion. Australian investors were disappointed with the decline of imports in China by 20%. Let us recall that China is a major buyer of Australian goods. We forecast a decline of markets in the near future, but the medium-term growth prospects have improved.