09.02.2015 - The dollar has strengthened significantly after data release on the US labor market
The price of euro decreased significantly on Friday after the publication of strong statistics on the US labor market. Thus, the number of new jobs in the agricultural sector grew by 257 thousand, against the forecast of growth by 231 thousand. At the same time, the unemployment rate increased by 0.1% to 5.7%. It is also worth noting the weak data on German industry, where production grew by only 0.1%, which is 0.3% worse than the forecast. Today we can see a small correction after a decline on Friday. Among the statistics we should pay attention to data on the trade balance of Germany (07:00 GMT) and the index of investor confidence in the Eurozone (09:30 GMT). Our medium-term outlook for the euro remains negative.
The price of the British pound fell sharply on Friday amid a stronger US dollar after the data release on the labor market in the country. In addition, negative for traders have become data on country's trade balance deficit which rose to 10.2 billion compared with an expected decline to 9.0 billion. Today in the UK is expected the publication of important macroeconomic data and investors will likely wait for new stimulus for further movement. We maintain our medium-term negative view on the pound, but the price is expected to continue consolidating near current levels in the near future.
The price of the Japanese yen fell sharply against the US dollar due to the increased number of jobs in the United States by 257 thousand that is 26 thousand better than the forecast. Today in Japan was published the data on the balance of payments for December, surplus of which has grown to 0.98 trillion that is 0.03 trillion better than the forecast. The consumer confidence index increased by 0.3 to 39.1. Today we expect a correction of the yen after the strong decline on Friday, but according to our estimates the price will continue to fall after the correction. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.
The price of the Australian dollar fell on Friday after the dollar strengthening. The beginning of trading week has led to the stabilization of prices despite the data on China's trade surplus, which showed a decrease in the country's imports by 20%. Let us recall that China is a major importer of Australian products. Speech by the Head of the RBA did not affect the course of trading. Tomorrow we expect increased activity of traders in connection with the publication of data on the index of business sentiment in Australia. Our medium-term outlook for the Australian dollar remains negative.
The price of the New Zealand dollar showed a sharp decline after the data release from the US that has led to strengthening of the US dollar. It is worth noting that the drop in prices was limited and at the moment the price is corrected upwards. Statistics on the reduction of imports in China was not able to enhance the price decline. Volatility in the first half of the week will be reduced and we keep the medium-term negative outlook on the New Zealand dollar.