09.02.2016 - Falling stock markets supported the interest to the yen

Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro resumed growth at the beginning of the week against the background of its use as a funding currency amid falling oil prices and US indexes. It is worth noting that the weak data on the index of investor confidence in the euro area, which fell to 6.0 in February, against 9.6 in January, could not significantly affect the mood of investors. Today, it is worth paying attention to the data on the trade balance in Germany (07:00 GMT), the index of optimism in the US small business (11:00 GMT) and wholesale inventories in the US (15:00 GMT). Markets await the Fed chairwoman speeches in Congress tomorrow and on Thursday. Rhetoric of Janet Yellen may significantly affect the course of trading. Our medium-term outlook remains negative, but we do not exclude the continuation of growth in the near future.

EUR-USD Exchange Rate

Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound continues to show growth on the background of the negative impact of external factors, as well as fears of investors about the country’s exit from the European Union, which will be negatively displayed on the price of the pound. Today, on the dynamics of trading will affect the news on the UK Trade Balance (09:30 GMT). Tomorrow a strong influence on the course of trading will have data on industrial production in the country. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook on the British pound, and expect the fall in the near future.

Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen continues to rise against the background of short-covering and growth in demand for protective assets, due to the continuation of the negative trends in the stock and commodity markets. The Japanese currency is traditionally considered as a defensive asset whose price increases during periods of instability. Now investors focus on the speech of the Fed tomorrow and on Thursday. Rhetoric of Mrs. Yellen strongly affect investors' expectations regarding the timing of the Fed raising interest rates. After a strong strengthening of the yen, there is a possibility of correction, but the key focus is now directed to the dynamics of the stock and commodity markets. Our medium-term outlook for the yen remains negative, despite the possible continuation of growth in the near future.

Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar has continued to fall due to lower oil prices and statistics for the index of business sentiment in Australia, which has remained 2 in January. Tomorrow will be published statistics on consumer confidence in Australia and new home sales in the country. The negative dynamics of commodity markets and the possible easing of monetary policy of the RBA on the background of low inflation, will put pressure on the quotes the Australian dollar in the medium term. Current fall is likely to continue in the coming days.

Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar has continued to fall following the Australian currency. The negative situation on the commodity markets and the possible reduction of the RBNZ interest rates will continue to put pressure on the price of New Zealand currency. Tomorrow night will be published data on the index of business sentiment in the manufacturing sector of the industry. We see no reason to change the negative trend to the positive and despite the small chance of growth in the near future, we keep a medium-term negative outlook.

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