09.03.2015 - Falling unemployment in the US has strengthened the dollar
The price of euro fell sharply on Friday against the publication of unexpectedly strong data on US labor market, which has led to the strengthening of the dollar. The US unemployment rate fell to 5.5%, which is 0.1% better than expected and 0.2% better than in January. At the same time, the number of jobs outside the agricultural sector grew by 295 thousand. Today, the focus of investors will be on a meeting of Eurozone finance ministers which will discuss the launch of the quantitative easing program and the Greek crisis, which continues to put pressure on the quotes of euro. Increase in volatility is expected after the release of data on the trade balance of Germany (07:00 GMT) and the speech of the Bundesbank chairman (17:30 GMT). We recommend holding short positions and maintain a medium-term negative outlook.
The price of the British pound fell against the weakening of the euro and the strong growth of the US dollar after the publication of data on the labor market in America. As a result, quotes came closer to the psychologically important level of 1.50. For the continued downward movement of the price will be needed a new strong stimulus. Tomorrow the course of trading will be affected by the retail sales data and the speech of the head of the Bank of England. We expect the price correction today with the absence of publication of important macroeconomic data.
The price of the Japanese yen continued to fall against the background of deteriorating data on GDP growth in the 4th quarter of last year after the revision. Thus, during this period, the indicator grew by only 0.4% against the expected 0.5%. The surplus of the balance of payments in January totaled 1.06 trillion yen, that was 0.1 trillion less than analysts' expectations. Falling prices are likely to continue in the near future, but we can also see a correction on the background of fixing positions. Our medium-term outlook for the yen remains negative.
The price of the Australian dollar continued to decline against the strengthening of the US dollar after the release of statistics on unemployment in the country. Also negative for the Australian currency was falling prices for iron ore, which is a key export commodity for the country. At the moment, we see no reason to change the negative trend to the positive due to reduced investment in the mining sector, the weakness of the labor market and expectations of further monetary easing. In the next few days might be a slight price correction. We maintain our medium-term negative outlook and recommend holding short positions.
The price of the New Zealand dollar fell sharply after the consolidation of the previous days. Strengthening of the US dollar was a factor which provoked a strong price movement. Investors may soon begin to fix the position. In the coming days volatility may increase in connection with speculation before the statement of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on Wednesday. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we recommend holding short positions.