09.03.2016 - Gold prices may soon resume falling

The price of gold fell against the background of the revaluation of risk on the stock markets of the world. Thus, the weak data on China's trade balance, which surplus unexpectedly fell to 32.6 billion dollars in February from 63.3 billion in January, failed to lead to a strong increase of gold due to the volatility of Chinese indexes in this period, due to the long holidays. Investors are waiting for the ECB meeting, where may expand stimulus measures for the Eurozone’s economy, which will lead to an increase in the equity markets and reduce the demand for defensive assets. We do not exclude the rise in share price to 1300 dollars per troy ounce, but the more likely scenario according to our forecasts will be the resumption of the negative dynamics against the strengthening of the US dollar and declining interest in defensive assets.

The price of futures for Light Sweet crude oil was unable to continue its growth and fell sharply yesterday on weak data on the trade in China, which has led to increased concerns about oil demand in the future. It is worth noting that from January to February, China's crude oil imports increased by 19.1% to 8 million barrels per day, against the background of increasing reserves in the country. Today in the United States will be published important statistics on oil inventories (15:30 GMT). It is worth noting that the scheduled on March 20 meeting of representatives of a number of major oil producers, where will discuss possible cooperation to stabilize the situation in the oil market. We forecast a drop in the medium term and expect a decline in the near future.

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