09.03.2016 - Traders are waiting for the decision of the RBNZ
Currency trading and the euro. The price of euro is lower against the US dollar in anticipation of tomorrow's ECB statement on monetary policy. Most analysts are sure about strengthening the incentives on the part of the European regulator. Thus, it may be decided to reduce the interest rates on deposits by 0.10% to -0.40% and the quantitative easing program may increase by 10-20 billion euro a month. In addition, investors will be watching the bank's rhetoric about the possibilities of further expansion of incentives that will be unlikely in the coming months. Our medium-term outlook for the euro remains negative and we expect a decrease in the near future.
Currency trading and the British pound. The price of the British pound resumed falling against the weakening US dollar, as well as fixing the positions after the recent strong growth. It is worth noting that the Bank of England official Martin Weale does not exclude the possibility of reducing interest rates or the resumption of quantitative easing if necessary. At the same time, to the market returned fear with respect to a referendum on Britain's membership in the European Union, which will be a central theme in the coming months. We recall that a referendum will be held on 23 June. Today, it is worth paying attention to the important statistics on industrial production in the country (09:30 GMT). We forecast a drop in prices in the coming months, but we expect the growth of the British pound closer to the date of the referendum and afterwards.
Currency trading and the Japanese yen. The price of the Japanese yen continues to strengthen gradually, despite the US dollar's rise. The reason for this dynamics was on the one hand the improved GDP data for Japan, which fell by only 0.3% versus -0.4% previously. In addition, the resumption of the negative dynamics of oil prices increased demand for the yen as a defensive asset. Today, it is worth paying attention to statistics on the volume of orders for machinery equipment (06:00 GMT). Our medium-term outlook for the yen remains negative due to the expected strengthening of the US dollar and the decline in demand for protective assets.
Currency trading and the Australian dollar. The price of the Australian dollar resumed its decline amid the negative dynamics of commodity markets. Prices for iron ore after the rapid growth resumed their decline, which will constrain increase in Australian currency. Today is also published negative data on the index of consumer confidence in Australia, which fell to -2.2% in March compared to 4.2% in February. Strong influence on the dynamics of the Australian currency will have statistics from China's industrial production in January. Our medium-term outlook remains negative and we expect the fall in the coming days.
Currency trading and the New Zealand dollar. The price of the New Zealand dollar resumed its decline after a strong growth. Investors fix long positions before the statement of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on monetary policy (20:00 GMT). Economic indicators have improved since the last meeting of the RBNZ and commodity prices show a recovery. In this regard, there is a possibility of saving the current settings unchanged, but in case of reduction in interest rates or a hint on such move at the next meeting, quotes will show a decline. Our medium-term outlook remains negative.