The price of gold fell below the psychologically important level of $ 1,200 per troy ounce after the publication of minutes of the previous meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which increased the likelihood of higher interest rates in the US in June. In addition, it is worth noting the low demand for gold from Asian consumers and fall among investment funds. Start of corporate reporting season can support the growth of the stock markets, which will also reduce the demand for defensive assets. Despite this, we expect an increase of gold in the medium term.
The price of Light Sweet crude oil has fallen sharply since the publication of statistics on the increase in US oil inventories by 10.9 million barrels to 482.4 million barrels, which is almost three times more than had been expected. At the same time, Saudi Arabia announced an increase in oil production in the country to 10.3 million barrels per day in March, against 10.2 million barrels in the previous month. In addition, the International Energy Agency said that the lifting of sanctions against Iran will lead to a drop in oil prices in 2016 to 5-15 dollars per barrel. Despite the expectation of reducing the volume of production in the US and the traditional increase in consumption in the summer, we maintain a medium-term negative outlook on oil, to $ 40 per barrel.